Analysis Ahead of Super Tuesday
What to look for tonight, and answering your questions
It’s Super Tuesday!
I shared who I’m voting for on Twitter yesterday.
We’ll still be as objective as possible in our coverage of the Democratic primary. In fact, just yesterday, I put up a Super Tuesday episode of Faith 2020 featuring Associate Editor at Commonweal and Bernie supporter Matthew Sitman, who was really compelling in explaining his support for his candidate.
Here’s the game plan for today, folks. In this post, I want to offer something of a preview of Super Tuesday, and respond to questions I received over social media. Tonight, I plan to establish a thread here on Substack where we can talk about the results as they can, and where I can write a few more extensive posts (a paragraph or two) about the results, while I’ll use Twitter to share more brief, rapid-fire comments throughout the night.
How Things Look
The set-up for today is not perfect for Biden. It’s not perfect for Sanders. The quick move from South Carolina to Super Tuesday means that the results tonight may not reflect the full effects of the SC bounce and the consolidation around Biden that has occurred over the last week, and especially the last 48 hours. Surely, Biden would have benefited from at least a few more days to ride the wave of praise he’s receiving from former rivals, rack up endorsements and show his renewed strength on the stump. If Super Tuesday was next week, Biden could have spent some of his new funds advertising in the 14 states that will vote today.
On the other hand, as I suggested to Addisu Demissie, who ran Cory Booker’s campaign, while Biden might not have time to fully capitalize on his big win in South Carolina, there are real upsides to Super Tuesday coming so soon after SC. I think of two ways in which this is true: First, if there was more time between SC and Super Tuesday, and therefore likely a debate between the two days, it’s possible Klobuchar and Buttigieg decide to throw one last strategic hail mary in an attempt to shake things up in their favor. Instead of consolidation around Biden, it’s possible that Biden would have faced another round of attacks from his more moderate opponents. Second, Bernie is essentially defenseless against the effects of South Carolina and the consolidation around Biden. Biden has dominated news coverage and free media over the last three days. There’s no way you can trust that polling has fully taken into account Biden’s win and the endorsements he’s received. As David Leonhardt wrote today, we truly are flying blind into Super Tuesday.
While we’re flying blind, here’s a few things to look out for tonight:
Do we finally see tonight that Bernie actually does have a ceiling, or does he continue to bust that conventional wisdom? Does the non-Bernie vote consolidate around Biden? Have voters been paying attention to how things have unfolded over the last few days?
Do Warren/Bloomberg hit the 15% threshold anywhere? Where? Do they hit the threshold in states Biden wins, potentially limiting his delegate haul from the state, or in a state like California where Sanders is expected to win?
Was South Carolina an aberration, the result of years of investment from Biden that simply cannot be replicated, or do we see the basic demographic makeup of his SC victory hold up across the South?
Does Bernie continue to draw 20-25% of those who identify as conservative, and a significant haul of moderates as well?
Do we get any decent religious exit poll data from tonight?!?!?
Prediction
Super Tuesday is always difficult to predict because there are so many factors, but this one is particularly hard. The conventional wisdom is that Sanders will emerge with a slight delegate lead after California is counted (which could take a week), and I think there’s a significant chance that is exactly what happens. But look…it’s not unthinkable that Biden is poised for a huge, shocking win tonight. It’s very possible that voters go to the polls today with Biden on the brain, and that he ends up winning Texas by 5-7 points; swamps Bernie in the South, including Virginia; and comes close to Bernie in Minnesota after Klobuchar’s endorsement. Turnout will matter a great deal, as it always does, but especially in light of the early vote. If turnout is high, I tend to think that favors Biden.
We’ll know for sure whether this is a game-changing night for Biden that puts him on-track to receive a majority of pledged delegates if he wins Texas in a convincing fashion, but Massachusetts, Virginia and North Carolina will provide some clues earlier in the evening.
So let me state a prediction clearly: I think Biden has a big night. I think he’ll win big in Virginia. I think he wins by 5-7 points in Texas. I think he hits at least 28% in California. I think he heads out of Super Tuesday with a lead in delegates that doesn’t end the race, but puts him in the driver seat. I’m far more uncertain about this than I have been about previous states, because we just don’t have great data, but y’all deserve a prediction.
Questions
Excellent questions from Kathryn, who is a real advocacy leader.
I think it’s very difficult to transfer over primary performance to general election performance. This is especially the case with Biden’s electability argument, but I do think it’s not so clear-cut here with Bernie’s argument about turnout. Primaries are different. He has certainly shown that he is the clear favorite among voters under-30, and I think it’s fair to project out that in a general it’s not unlikely the enthusiasm for his candidacy among young people inspires some to vote who would not if Biden (or Warren) was the nominee.
What I would say is that if Bernie does turn out new voters, I doubt that he will be able to only turnout new voters who support him. In other words, a Sanders candidacy would likely have the effect of driving turnout for Trump, as well.
For more reading on this question, check out Michelle Goldberg’s column, this NY Times analysis of Bernie’s support so far in this primary, and Ed Kilgore on the value of Bernie’s support among young voters.
Regarding the question about Clyburn-esque figures in Super Tuesday states…I do think the Democratic establishment in Virginia is valued, and it’s the consolidation around Biden there that, in part, is why I’m confident he’ll win big in the Commonwealth. Tim Kaine, Bobby Scott, Terry McAuliffe and many of Virginia’s representatives in Congress have endorsed Biden. But really, Kathryn, the answer is no. Harry Reid has that kind of status in Nevada, but he declined to endorse before the state’s caucus. There’s one politician who has not yet endorsed who would influence many, many voters, but he’s been a bit more subtle so far…
If by “vote with your heart,” you mean “vote for the candidate who gives you the most feels,” then I would suggest that’s not what civic engagement ought to be about. But if by “vote with your heart,” you mean that you’re voting with deep care and concern for how your vote reflects your concern and care for your neighbors and your community, then to vote with a strategy can (not always, but it can) amplify your heart’s intent.
lol considering 18 candidates dropped out yesterday…YES
The upside to early voting is that it provides a greater opportunity for more citizens to engage in the democratic process. I do have concerns that early voting is in some ways undemocratic in that it facilitates voters casting their ballot at different times, with different inputs and incentives, but at this point I tend to side with greater access to the ballot. It’s worth further study and analysis, however.
I do not think so, but we’ll see if she does tonight. Progressive advocacy groups continue to consolidate around her (EMILY’s List finally endorsed after Klobuchar dropped out), so if she does better than expected tonight, pulling 15% in 9+ states, perhaps, maybe her argument can break through…there’s a chance that with Buttigieg/Klobuchar out, despite their endorsements of Biden, that the white, liberal, college-educated vote goes almost entirely to Warren. But really, I’m really straining to find a path forward for her. I just don’t think she’s going to have the ability to overtake Sanders in the left-wing of the primary electorate, and it’s difficult to see Biden losing establishment support at this point. The fact is, Warren needed Sanders out if she was going to win running the way she did: as a confrontational candidate who is on the left on both economic and social issues.
OK, that’s all for now. Continue sending in your questions, and I’ll see you tonight!
-Michael
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