Midterms Preview

What to look for, races to watch, what the results will tell us...

What is it that makes these midterms feel especially meaningful, significant and…weird? Here’s my answer: in a politics of competing narratives, where we’re not so much having one conversation with different points of view, but many different conversations with different assumptions, priorities and “facts,” it’s Election Day that provides the convergence of these disparate threads. Elections provide the one thing it seems everyone in our politics must respond to and acknowledge. So we look to elections to provide clarity—to tell us where we are—because other ways of assessing that seem so manipulable and uncertain. (See Ron Brownstein on this point in The Atlantic)

What I Expect

Here’s what I think will happen: I think Republicans win the House with a 25-seat majority, and gain a 51-seat majority in the Senate. This is not a novel prediction…not only is it in line with most of the major analysts out there (see Cook Political Report, for instance), but it’s also the prediction Melissa expressed on the podcast a few weeks ago. I’ve come around to her view, even as I think we go into tomorrow with the potential for significant surprises.

Democrats will win or come close in some surprising places like Oklahoma’s gubernatorial election (Hofmeister will likely lose, but if she’s within 5 points, it will be impressive), which will provide a hint of what could have been had the Democrats run a different kind of campaign.

Key Factors

Republicans will win because of the conventional headwinds against the party that controls The White House, but also for the following reasons:

1. Democrats’ economic messaging has been under-handed and they, particularly The White House, have failed to take voters seriously. It’s not just claiming credit for social security benefits increasing. When you won’t communicate good news honestly—for instance, they share a chart of jobs created as if COVID never happened—then you won’t be trusted when the chips are down (or inflation is up).

2. Donald Trump is not on the ballot.

3. Democrats overplayed their advantage on Trump, on abortion and on democracy. Instead of using these issues as a foundation to stand on while convincing voters on the issues that gave them pause, they sought to use these issues to overwhelm everything else.
   
   Now, if Democrats somehow only lose 5-15 house seats, and keep the Senate, it will be because I’m wrong on this point. It will likely be clear they played their advantage on these issues just right. I don’t think they have, and I think they will lose because of it. Instead of telling voters: “you already know how extreme Republicans are, and what they’ll do if they get power back, so we’re going to spend most of our time this campaign earning your trust on the issues that give you pause about us,” they said, sometimes quite explicitly, “you don’t trust us on crime, the economy, immigration, parental rights, and so many other issues, but you’re morally bound to vote on the issues we tell you are important.”
   
   Moreover, instead of offering a moderate alternative to Republican extremism, they offered extremism of their own or otherwise undermined their own message. Instead of Mandela Barnes promising to get rid of the filibuster, Barnes should have Joe Manchin robocalls dispatched to independent voters with Manchin expressing how glad he’ll be to be joined by another independent, purple state Democrat in the Senate.
   
   On abortion specifically, it’s helpful to think about the Catholic teaching on voting and abortion. It’s generally understood that the guidance from the US Conference of Catholic Bishops is that a Catholic may faithfully vote for a pro-choice candidate in spite of their position on abortion. That is, that you can vote for a pro-choice candidate so long as you disagree with the candidate on abortion. Now, the way I think that sometimes filters down into the lived practice of Catholics is the idea that you can vote for a pro-choice candidate so long as you’re voting for the candidate for reasons other than their stance on abortion with the unstated idea that you also kind of think they’re right on abortion if you were going to be honest. But the national Democratic campaign left little room for Catholic voters (or anyone else) to not emphasize abortion when it comes to the meaning of their vote.
   
   If Democrats lose big tomorrow, you might be able to point to this extraordinary quote by DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney when asked about Democrats’ spending to prop up extreme, election-denying Republicans in their primaries: “There’s only one reason we spend money and that’s to elect a pro-choice majority.” In other words, Maloney says here that Democrats were willing to spend money to promote candidates who would be a direct threat to democracy, which touches on one reason Biden has given as to why Americans are bound to vote for Democrats, in order to elect enough Democrats to scrap the filibuster and codify an abortion regime in America that is more liberal than anything we’ve had federally in American history. Democrats placed abortion rights that close to the center of their appeal these midterms. Might they lose voters who are uncomfortable with Dobbs, but don’t necessarily want to use their vote primarily to affirm wholesale support for Democrats’ approach to the issue?

Now, I will say, I feel less certain about these predictions than other recent elections. Dobbs truly is a wild card. To me, Dobbs is the Democrats’ wild card, just as COVID is the Republicans’. Maybe Gen Z and pro-choice women really do turn out in record numbers. However, as we’ve covered in this newsletter and on the podcast, we have some evidence that these won’t be as potent as some thought they might be. Abortion is viewed as the top issue by only 5% of voters (and many in that five-percent are pro-life)—even after all of the money, media attention and political events directed toward raising that number. A majority of Americans approve of how Biden has handled COVID. But, in both cases, it’s very possible the polling isn’t picking up on what will be expressed at the ballot box.

Analyzing the Electorate

And so here are some demographic factors I’ll be looking for that will help determine election results:

1. Do we see a big increase in turnout among women?

2. Does Gen Z show up?

3. Do Republicans win big among parents?

4. Voters’ level of education is turning into one of the key fissures in our politics. Do these trends continue?

5. Do Republicans receive 15%+ of Black males?

6. Do Republicans approach 40%+ among Hispanic voters? Do we get exit polls showing a breakdown of Hispanic Catholics and Hispanic evangelicals, and what does the split look like?

7. How do Catholics react to abortion being front and center in Democrats’ messaging? How do Fetterman, Ryan, Barnes do among Catholics compared to Biden in 2020?

8. Biden significantly improved among white evangelicals in 2020 over Clinton’s numbers in 2016. Do Warnock/Abrams’ look more like Clinton or Biden among white evangelicals in Georgia? What does white evangelical turnout and voting look like overall with Trump off the ballot?

9. Do we see a significant spike in abortion and/or democracy as motivating factor for voters? Is the spike just among solid Democrats, or do we see large numbers of swing voters voting Democratic motivated by abortion.

10. Does concern about crime among the electorate look anything like this?

John Gramlich @johngramlich

% of registered voters who see violent crime as a very important voting issue this year Black Democrats: 82% White Democrats: 33% pewrsr.ch/3Wleags

Races to Watch

Finally, here are some of the races I’ll be watching closely:

Oz v. Fetterman (U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania) - I continue to think that this race is the real hinge point. Democrats have really struggled to win this seat in the past, but a win here would make a Republican takeover of the Senate much more difficult, and bode well for Democrats in 2022 and 2024. Fetterman has been forced to run a strange campaign though due to Fetterman’s health issues, with his team relying on personal attacks driven by creative ads and social media to fill the void of Fetterman’s presense (political hobbyists mostly bought it, but it’s unclear what voters thought).

Bolduc v. Hassan (U.S. Senate, New Hampshire) - Hassan should pull this one out, but Bolduc has momentum. If he somehow wins, it almost certainly means Republicans will take control of the Senate. It will also mean that Democrats’ decision to fund Bolduc’s campaign was not just political gamesmanship, but a decision with real life consequences, including a six-year term.

Walker v. Warnock (U.S. Senate, Georgia) - If Warnock wins a full six-year term, it will go a long way toward solidifying Georgia’s status and future as a purple state, as well as keeping margins close in the Senate balance of power. If Walker wins, it will be a belated victory for polarization following Warnock and Ossoff’s extraordinary victories in 2020 which made Democrats’ Senate majority for the last two years possible.

Mayra Flores v. Vicente González (U.S. House, Texas’ 34th) - There is no monolithic Hispanic vote, but this race will provide one crucial window into the present state of Hispanic voters’ relationship to the Democratic Party. Mayra Flores has run a faith-heavy campaign, and she’s also run as pretty stridently conservative. If she wins, it’s an indication that Democrats’ cultural brand is becoming a disqualifier in districts with a significant strain of cultural conservatism.

Abigail Spanberger v. Yesli Vega (U.S. House, Virginia’s 7th) - Spanberger is a prototypical strong moderate Democrat. A compelling person who has shown a level of independence from the party, Spanberger is unfortunately the kind of Democrat who loses in a wave election.

Michael Bennet v. John O’Dea (U.S. Senate, Colorado) - Speaking of which, Michael Bennet is one of the good guys. He’s a Senator who actually does his job, and does it well. He’s the kind of person you want in the Senate. He’s also running against a Republican who is a sort of throwback to the pre-Trump days, when center-right Republicans thought their party could do no wrong and that any decent person was a Republican. I expect Bennet to pull this one out, it would be a shame to lose him, but if Republicans really are riding a wave, it will be strong recruits in these “reach” states and districts like Colorado that will make it blood red.

Lauren Underwood v. Scott Gryder (U.S. House, Illinois’ 14th) - Lauren Underwood represents the best of the generation of leadership President Obama lifted up during his rise to the presidency. A public service-minded former nurse, Underwood has won two difficult general elections in a tough swing district. She’s certainly representative of her younger generation in key ways, but she, along with Rep. Andy Kim (another race to watch), for instance, has offered something of an alternative to the more partisan of the next-generation of Democrats in Congress. If Democrats lose Lauren and her seat, it’s another sign it will be a very bad night for the party.

Joy Hoffmeister vs. Kevin Stitt (OK Governor) - We’ve talked a great deal about Hoffmeister over the last couple months. She’s run a smart, disciplined campaign. If she wins, or comes close, it could end up serving as a lesson for Democrats about what could have been had they run campaigns like hers across the country.

Mike Lee v. Evan McMullin (UT Senate) - Obviously, if McMullin pulls this out, it almost certainly means Democrats will keep the Senate. Even more significant than that though, if McMullin wins or comes close, it might set the stage for more creative efforts to break through our stubborn, toxic polarization. I’m rooting for Evan.

Val Demings v. Marco Rubio (U.S. Senate, Florida) and Cheri Beasley v. Ted Budd (U.S. Senate, North Carolina) - If these races are closer than some of the states where Democrats put a lot of attention and resources, there will be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking, and it will be justified. Demings and Beasley are strong, qualified candidates who deserved more support from the party, even in a tight environment.

One Final Note

Again, I’m prepared to be surprised tomorrow, but if Republicans win the House and/or the Senate, I want to remind you that I think that could be Biden’s saving grace. Yes, he’ll have to deal with a more adversarial Congress, and the investigations and hearings that come from that, but what I think Biden has suffered from most these two years politically is that he has had no proper foil. His primary opposition has been his own party, and Biden is not the kind of politician who handles that well. He needs the opposition of the other party to react to and contrast with. If I was in The White House, I would use these midterms as an opportunity to reset, and to plan to see if it’s possible to get Biden’s approval ratings approaching 50% by the first 100 days of the next session of Congress. Based on how those 100 days go, they’ll have the information they will need to decide whether a re-election bid is viable.

Thread

Tomorrow, you’ll receive an email announcing that the live thread is open. Until then, let me know what you’re looking for and what races you’re watching closely in the comments for this post. Can’t wait to be with many of you tomorrow evening.

Also, to start your day, consider joining us for The Morning Five tomorrow. We’ll take a break from headlines, and just pray and read scripture ahead of what will be a busy and weighty day.

Until then…