Political Brief: Polling on persuadable voters, trust in the GOP, and abortion

Plus: Biden's big statement on Taiwan and the US dollar is surging

Dear Friends,

Michael bought me tickets to see Mandy Patinkin in January in DC. If you don’t know him, Mandy played über famous roles in Princess Bride (“My name is Inigo Montoya!”) and Homeland (Saul). But I love him for his tenor voice. I will argue with anyone that he has the most beautiful non-opera male voice alive today. We can’t wait to hear him possibly sing something from Sunday in the Park with George!

Reclaim hope this week,

Michael & Melissa

The 3 things you should know:

1. In a 60 Minutes interview yesterday, President Biden had some really interesting things to say about whether or not the US would intervene if China attacked Taiwan. We’re interested to see how the WH press secretary responds to questions on this today.

   Steven Portnoy @stevenportnoy

   NEW: Asked on @60Minutes if US would defend Taiwan if it came under attack, Biden -- again -- says yes. PELLEY: "To be clear, sir, U.S. forces, U.S. men and women, would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion?" BIDEN: "Yes." (WH again says US policy hasn't changed.)

   Melissa Wear @MelissaMWear

   There’s a fascinating global dynamic emerging over the last 10yrs that’s solidifying: not a clear-cut multipolar world but a regional-based hegemonic structure bumping against a still ultra-powerful US. Other superpowers want regional dominance & it’s hard for the US to maneuver. https://t.co/ln3wcC8dpj

   

   Melissa Wear @MelissaMWear

   Well, this remains confusing. If you want to call their bluff and rely on Xi’s pragmatism and rationality, I can see it (I don’t endorse this), but this is confusing messaging. Looking forward to Press Sec’s clarifications tomorrow?! https://t.co/32orAVnhzj

2. The US dollar’s strength against global currencies is rising, and that means more market uncertainty globally, and it’ll drive up inflation globally. (WSJ) For example, the dollar may hit parity with British sterling (the pound) when usually the pound is much stronger. The UK’s economy has been struggling with growth for many years, and this will not help matters. (CNN)

3. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, and now Florida Governor Ron DeSantishave been using taxpayer funds to transport undocumented migrants to “safe haven” areas like NYC and Martha’s vineyard as a show of how southern states are the recipients of an unmanageable amount of migrants. The point is a legitimate one; the means used to make it are not. Politico has politicians’ reactions to this issue.

Midterms

• Continuing on immigration policy, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, who is in a vulnerable race, continues to push the President on tougher enforcement of immigration laws, an example of how these issues are often considered differently by Democrats along the Southern border. (CBS)

• In the latest NBC polling on persuadable voters, they find that 43% of them live in “outer suburbs.” Here are some key indicators for these persuadable outer suburbanites:

  

  

• Josh Kraushaar writes for Axios that Dems’ forward momentum may be slowing because of a) inflation news, b) student loan debt cancellation falling flat, and c) polling momentum in key competitive races. (Vox)

• However, polling on abortion and the existence of President Trump spell out a more positive story for Democratic momentum. (NBC)

• For Republicans, there’s this poll leaning in their favor, and we did a deep dive on these issues in our latest Sunday podcast episode.

  Michael Wear @MichaelRWear

  We didn't have these numbers in hand when we recorded today's episode, but we didn't need them as these are the very issues we named when discussing the reasons the GOP is poised to do well this November (last week, we discussed reasons Dems would do well) spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/lE5Oaq3Xqtb

  

  InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

  NBC POLL: GOP has Largest Edge over Dems Ever in NBC Poll's history on Economy, Crime and Immigration Which party do you trust to handle: The Economy: GOP — 47% (+19) Dem — 28% Crime GOP — 45% (+23) Dem — 22% Immigration GOP — 46% (+17) Dem — 29% https://t.co/PZ1sA5Aagd https://t.co/2Ois3FLIdE

  • What could detract from these core messages? Abortion. Sen. Lindsey Graham introduced a 15-week abortion ban bill last week, thereby breaking two rules: talking about abortion as a Republican issue, and talking about a solution at the federal level. (CNN)