QOTW #4: What are Biden's Chances?
Seven Questions That Will Determine Biden's Fate
Dear Readers,
This week’s question relates to the current Democratic frontrunner.
Let’s get to it.
It's terrible of me, but I really don't want Biden to win. He's just so... old. He's a good ol' boy at a time when I'm desperate for anything but. I'd love to grab a sweet tea with him on the porch but not hand him a tattered government along with my hopes of restoration and innovation.
Is he primarily leading due to such high name recognition out the gate? What's the precedent for upsetting this kind of lead? What's Joe's greatest chance of success—and failure—in the primaries?
Well, there’s a lot in that first paragraph, but I am going to mostly leave that tangled web of emotions alone and focus on the direct questions.
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead certainly has something to do with name recognition, which is compounded by the fact that so many of the other leading Democratic contenders (with the exception of Bernie Sanders) are relatively new to national politics. Many have noted that with the growing diversity of the Democratic Party, it’s discordant that the two national frontrunners are old white men. This is, of course, worth noting, but it’s also true that Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the most well-known candidates in the race. One of the benefits of seniority is that you’ve been around a while, and voters can form a sense of familiarity and comfort with you. It can be frustrating for those who follow politics regularly to have this lag, this sense the trajectory of the race is being held back by a lack of knowledge/interest from the general public, but this is all part of the process. Is Biden leading right now among black voters because his name recognition is high, or is his high name recognition a reflection of a bond he’s built with black voters?
Don’t miss this New York Times story which suggests voters have an unusually high awareness of Biden’s biography, and feel deeply connected to him. If that is the case, he’ll be hard to beat.
The precedent for the candidate leading in the Democratic nominating process at this point losing is actually really strong. So strong, in fact, that some have even argued that leading now actually suggests a coming collapse. I don’t go that far—I’d rather be leading now than not—but Biden certainly has a target on his back.
Here are some of the dynamics of this race that I think will determine Biden’s fate:
Is Trump an aberration or a new (lower) standard?
I won’t belabor this point, as I’ve discussed it here before, but this does seem like a critical hinge point for this race. How has Trump changed the American people’s expectations for their president and presidential candidates, and Americans’ perceptions of their own country?
Is a long history a boon or a burden?
After Trump, do the American people want a candidate who is a familiar face with a history, or is history just baggage that weighs down Biden?
Security or disruption?
Do Americans want a counter-disruption to Trump, or do they want a president who makes them feel safe, secure and turns the anxiety-meter down?
Conflict or Comity?
Has Trump angered/frightened/offended voters so much that they feel they need a bully of their own to defend them, or do they want to turn the page on a politics of demagoguery?
These first four questions are really four different ways to get at the same basic issue, though it’s interesting how different candidates seem to be attacking Biden on different fronts while aligning with him on others.
Is Biden’s support among black voters and moderates solid?
Biden will face sustained attacks on all fronts, but if he’s able to hold together a coalition of moderates and African-Americans (there is significant overlap between these two categories, of course) he will be difficult to defeat. How real is Biden’s support among these voters? Can he maintain the posture and positions that have won those voters’ support in what will be a rowdy series of debates and a media environment that will constantly challenge Biden and pressure him to move left?
Who drops out and when?
Will we see the majority of the candidates drop out before we even get to Iowa? Will we have 8-10 candidates still in the race by Super Tuesday? Does Sanders or Warren drop out early and boost the remaining candidate, or do Warren/Sanders split the vote among their supporters while Biden builds an insurmountable lead? Can Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Harris and Booker really all make it past Iowa?
So much can change, but my sense right now is that Biden benefits from a field that is so saturated, with so many candidates with distinct appeals.
Just how liberal is the Democratic primary electorate and how liberal can/will the primary process make them?
There is either no explanation needed here or a separate essay of explanation is needed.
***
My basic take here is that it is way too early to be making predictions. This question will be worth revisiting once we get through the summer.
What is clear to me is that Biden’s position is not as strong as Hillary Clinton’s was in 2015, but I also believe his support will prove more durable than many people seem to think. He’s certainly a stronger candidate than the person who was leading the field in 2003 at about this time (it was Joe Lieberman. Joe Lieberman was the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in the Spring of 2003).
Biden is not inevitable (notice how there has been no use of that word, thankfully, this cycle), but he is not going to just collapse. If Biden doesn’t end up as the nominee, it will be because someone beat him.
Thanks for your question, Reader.
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