Join me tonight for a live thread on tonight’s election results starting at 7 PM EST.
The focus this evening will be on Virginia’s Gubernatorial election, which we’ve covered pretty intensely here over the last three weeks, in particular. It’s been a pretty noxious affair, with bad-faith, over-the-top attacks coming from both directions. My head tells me Democrats’ advantage in VA will hold up and prove too significant for Youngkin. My gut tells me Youngkin has the momentum, and he’s poised to perform as well or better as Gillespie in Northern Virginia, while capitalizing on robust turnout in the Southern part of the state. My head: McAuliffe +3. My gut and my prediction: Youngkin +4.
What to watch tonight:
Loudoun County Youngkin finished his campaign in Loudoun county last night with a “Parents Matter” rally. Is he able to keep the county close (as it was in McAuliffe’s narrow victory in 2013), or do Democrats really have a durable dominance in Northern Virginia that Youngkin was unable to dent? If Youngkin wins Loudoun County, he wins the election, in my view.
How do parents vote? In 2020, Biden tied among men with children and trounced Trump among women with children. Do those numbers, particularly the Democratic advantage in VA with female parents, hold?
Would a Youngkin Victory Really be a Surprise? There’s been talk of Virginia turning blue, but it would be wise to be attentive to the history of VA’s off-year Gubernatorial elections. They are often responses to, cautions to, the party that just won the White House. Democrats won in 2001 and 2005 after Bush won The White House. Republicans won in 2009 after Obama’s 2008 victory. McAuliffe won in 2013, but by only 4 points. In 2017, Northam won by 8 points after Trump’s 2016 victory. All of that to say, VA may lean blue, but it has tended to have a moderating effect in response to the previous year’s presidential election results.
Black Turnout Low turnout of Black voters in 2013 was pegged as one reason McAuliffe’s 2013 victory was so close, and there are major concerns this time around that it may contribute to a defeat in 2021. I must say, on first blush, you’d think McAuliffe’s heavy emphasis on race in response Youngkin’s focus on parents and education was about appealing to Black voters, but I’d be wary of that reading. The focus on cultural/social issues to close out this campaign may hurt McAuliffe more than it helps with Black voters. We’ll see if this shows up in the exit polls at all.
The Trump Effect How much are voters thinking about Trump? McAuliffe has been very focused on tying Youngkin to Trump, and so if Trump is low on the radar, it doesn’t bode well for McAuliffe. Trump has been trying to insinuate himself into the campaign, including issuing supportive statements of Youngkin over the last 48 hours. Youngkin, meanwhile, is trying to provide Republicans a roadmap for how to keep Trump at a distance without losing his supporters…we’ll see how effective he’s been tonight.
So much more to say, but we’ll save it for the thread tonight. Tell me: what are you looking for tonight? Do you think Murphy is in any trouble in NJ? Do Democrats keep the VA House? It’s been a while since we’ve done a live election thread. Looking forward to seeing you in a few hours.
While CNN and others are holding out, others have called the race for Youngkin. In NJ, the favored Democratic incumbent is in real danger of losing.
Much went into McAuliffe's loss, some of it under his control. But McAuliffe's smugness, his disingenuous appeal to race and racism, and the hubris of his approach to governing contributed to his loss.
I have to hop on a call until 10 PM, but will return then to answer your questions and keep the conversation going. Do talk among yourselves until then!
I'm not sure the story McAuliffe/Democrats/MSNBC tell themselves and others about Youngkin's "parents matter" push is a plausible story for most voters. Some of it sounds downright pathological tbh.
Watching MSNBC, and they are telling a story about this VA race that I'm mostly unfamiliar with...wondering how widely shared this reading is of what has happened over the last 6-8 weeks.
Would you (Michael or Melissa) say more about Buffalo's mayoral election? Was a write-in campaign fair? Is the (even just primary) success of a socialist in Buffalo surprising?
Actual numbers coming in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/virginia/?itid=hp-top-table-main#governor
While CNN and others are holding out, others have called the race for Youngkin. In NJ, the favored Democratic incumbent is in real danger of losing.
Much went into McAuliffe's loss, some of it under his control. But McAuliffe's smugness, his disingenuous appeal to race and racism, and the hubris of his approach to governing contributed to his loss.
I have to hop on a call until 10 PM, but will return then to answer your questions and keep the conversation going. Do talk among yourselves until then!
Loudoun 78% reporting. Youngkin performing well there, but actually a couple points worse than Cuccinelli's losing 2013 campaign.
Results from Fairfax County delayed...not a good look, and will affect the way this race is called this evening
I'm not sure the story McAuliffe/Democrats/MSNBC tell themselves and others about Youngkin's "parents matter" push is a plausible story for most voters. Some of it sounds downright pathological tbh.
Watching MSNBC, and they are telling a story about this VA race that I'm mostly unfamiliar with...wondering how widely shared this reading is of what has happened over the last 6-8 weeks.
Exit polls look good for Youngkin, in my view...as far as you can take exit polls (which is not always that far)
NBC #VAGOV exit poll:
Trump fav: 41/54
Youngkin fav: 53/44
Melissa, what do you think Dems need to learn from tonight if Youngkin wins?
Would you (Michael or Melissa) say more about Buffalo's mayoral election? Was a write-in campaign fair? Is the (even just primary) success of a socialist in Buffalo surprising?
Wondering what you make of that recent polling on how a "GOP like Hogan" or a "GOP like Trump" would fair against "moderate dem" and "progressive dem" https://www.wypr.org/wypr-news/2021-10-28/poll-for-next-governor-marylanders-want-a-republican-like-larry-hogan
Was it your head or gut that was right about Biden and super tuesday because that has stuck with me