It’s that time again. Our Election Night live threads are one of our readers favorite features of the Substack, and so we’re back with you this evening. I shared my preview for tonight yesterday. To get us going, share here what questions you have going into tonight. What races are you watching? Is there a ballot measure you this is particularly interesting or important? Did anything in my preview stick out to you?
I’ll probably start posting here at 7:30 PM EST or so, and we’ll go as late as we need to this evening (or tomorrow morning!).
If you enjoy and benefit from this live thread, would you consider becoming a paid subscriber? We have a special midterm offer for subscribers that will end tomorrow. Thank you!
Readers of this newsletter will remember I've been suggesting for months that due to polarization, presidential approval rating may not be as significant as it has been historically. Significant numbers of voters who disapprove of Biden look to be supporting his party tonight.
Agree to an extent- not a fan of our campaign culture and definitely saw her campaign bend to it. As her constituent, will continue to hold her accountable to a higher standard. We have much work to do to shift our culture & our politics
Just finished up my day as an election official… I love doing it but having to redirect 20 or 30% of voters because they are at the wrong precinct feels like a big L for democracy.
I do it all for the $165 paycheck for a 14-hour shift. ;) It’s super fun, just leaves me wondering how many people actually make it to the right place when I turn them away.
At what point does it make sense for the technology to allow voters to vote from the "wrong" precinct, as long as it's within like the same county or district and on the same system?
THIS. it’s especially confusing because in our (urban) county, you can vote anywhere during early voting but can only vote at your precinct day of. Also, suburban counties near us allow people to vote anywhere on Election Day. Of course people are confused!
I'm so thankful that the live thread is up and running! This is by far my favorite feature of the Substack and I love connecting with you all. I voted over lunch and there was no line for me, however, I'm hearing reports of very long lines over my city/state in general (Madison, WI). A few polling locations near the university required extra ballots to be delivered. This is interesting to me as I'm hearing mixed results about turn out in other states. Wisconsin has the oldest abortion law in the US (the law bans abortion). I've heard commentators mention that where abortion is under threat, there are larger turn outs and I think the turn out from Wisconsin will support that hypothesis. My ballot had a referral on it asking if the abortion ban should be repealed (fun fact - my realtor wrote the ballot question)! I'll be looking for the results of that question. I work in healthcare and the WI law is causing a lot of stress because it's difficult to interpret. There were two other questions related to marijuana legalization and expungement.
I'm watching for split ticket voting in Wisconsin as I think (& hope) our democratic governor will pull out a win, however, I could see other races going republican. But if the turn out does end up being big, a Mandela Barnes win is possible (although I dont think Barnes was a strong candidate and doubt his Catholic vote will where Biden's was). The Johnson v. Barnes race didn't have much national attention, but I think it will get more discussion in the postmortem analysis.
I'm also closely watching the Latina vote as was highlighted in the preview email. I love how the preview mentioned Catholic voters. I grew up evangelical in a very Catholic town and went to a Catholic school. My Catholic friends are all over the place on their political beliefs. Thank you for highlighting the Democrats' primary spending - that was disgusting. I find myself again hoping that any election denying, conspiracy wielding (most republican) candidates lose, yet I don't want the democrats to have too big of a win because they do not seem to understand. I live in a very white, progressive city and get easily annoyed/frustrated with white progressives.
Pulling for a Bennet win in CO and Underwood in IL! They have been guests on podcasts and was really impressed with both of them.
Lastly, I liked your final note in the preview. If republicans gain seats, it'll make Biden shine brighter and hopefully make democrats re-think some of their strategies, although I'm prepared to be disappointed on that front.
I'm watching the Arizona vote as I live here and hope we continue to have representation by Mark Kelly. Kari Lake and Blake Masters sued Maricopa County late this afternoon to have polling sites open for 3 additional hours but the judge rejected that appeal. I'm an Independent and to be transparent I tend to vote D but am so frustrated by the extreme positions especially on abortion many D politicians take. Messaging is so often tone deaf especially for the faith community. I live in Mesa and have been so impressed with our Mayor John Giles who is a Republican (of the Rusty Bower type, integrity and character) and has campaigned for Mark Kelly and Katy Hobbs. He is getting hammered by Republicans but he shows fearless courage and I would not hesitate to support him in the future. We need more D and R politician's who put integrity, character and principled decision making first.
The way the House has unfolded tonight is really interesting.
It feels like it comes down to Warnock/Walker in the Senate to determine Senate majority. The GOP feels like it's headed into an interesting defining moment, with clashes between the Freedom Caucus and more establishment types vying for the Speakership and beyond. I can't really imagine things are super clean beyond tonight.
So long as Democrats don't see major drop in Hispanic support out West, it is looking likely that Democrats may keep their losses under 20 seats or so.
Democrats performing better than I thought right now, but beware as this moves West if we're looking at a significant swing among Hispanic voters nationally.
North Carolinian checking in here. I did not appreciate the regular hand written post cards from Beasley campaign touting abortion access. On balance and against Budd she is the better option. Glad she is running well but I wonder if as many were turned off as turned out by those tactics.
Fellow North Carolinian here. Interestingly I feel like I got so many more mailers from the Budd campaign and they were very negative. I don’t recall mailers from the Beasley campaign...but all the mailers go straight to the recycle bin. Very tired of negative campaigning.
I don’t see/hear many audio/video ads because of my media habits, but my 12 yr old daughter (who watches too much YouTube :)) has heard plenty of political ads there. The other day she asked me what liberal means. I asked her in what context. She said...”Cheri Beasley is too liberal...” Trying to explain to her what liberal means helped me know I need to continue learning in this context. The first thing that came to mind though was approach to abortion.
Thankful for the space tonight! I'm in Spanberger's district and I'm anxious to see results.... but have avoided looking all day, trying to not let it consume my mind! Your morning 5 was perfect this morning Michael, thank you (and everyone who suggested the wonderful passages, some of my favorites!) Excited to be with you all tonight.
A question I have: does the lack of clarity of Democrats' policy proposals other than general "support for abortion" turn away people of faith who otherwise could stomach a candidate who is pro-abortion with some clear and defined restrictions?
Obviously, we'll have more data in time, but with the importance of abortion being at least notable in these midterms, I'd be interested in observing.
My congressional district was divided in 3 in pretty blatant, unapologetic gerrymandering. I’m in the only part that had even a chance of staying Democratic. Once he won the primary, the GOP nominee didn’t speak to the press and refused to debate his opponent. He’s looking very likely to win. How can I reclaim hope in the face of this, which feels so cynical?
My question is: do miracles still happen, and if yes, can we get one in the Texas guber? Name it. Claim it. Do whatever we have to do. ;) But you know, also preparing for the testing of my faith blah blah blah...
I'm in PA so watching the Oz/Fetterman senate race and the Mastriano/Shapiro governor race with much angst. A more broad question I keep pondering is candidate quality and why the parties seem to be struggling in some states to get decent candidates to run. It feels a bit like we've lost our way and none of this represents me or my community (which was supposed to be the whole point!).
Circling back here because this race is fascinating. Sam, the needle now has Boebert only winning by 0.7% and she is currently down by a little more than 1.5% with 88% of the vote counted. She may win but with nothing like the expected margin. Feels like something happened here that we all missed.
See, this is why people need to pay attention to things like the NYT needle, not partial vote totals. They still project Boebert winning by 12. Don't get your hopes up.
Appreciate this thread gang, three things I’m watching: Texas, specifically Harris County (large GOP efforts to alter voting laws there, big push to try and recapture from the GOP and I’m a big Lina Hidalgo guy), the Paxton / Abbott delta, and more generally the delta between the traditional versus MAGA candidates.
I'm looking forward to see what happens with the senate and gubernatorial elections in my home state of Ohio and to see how things shake out in my current state of California. I'm sharing my excitement over voting with my family members in Ohio without getting into the details of who voted for what and hoping we can all keep things cool tonight and tomorrow.
one of my Columbus friends reported a 50 minute wait to vote mid-morning and by end of the day the line was wrapped around the building and down the street. Big turnout there!
Thanks Michael and Melissa for doing this, as always! I'm watching, at least at first, the competitive House races in my home state Virginia, including Rep. Spanberger's contest just down the road from my home district, that Michael flagged in this morning's preview. After that, super interested in the Pennsylvania Senate race though I understand that might not be called for a while.
For those following it, NYT's needle was initially coded up incorrectly with an extra safe D seat in Louisiana. They're updating and it sounds like it will start out with a 51% chance of a Republican Senate, which is closer to 538's forecasts.
And for those not following it, you really should. There is way too much confusing partial data coming in all over the country for even the best humans (and whatever species Steve Kornacki is) to parse. An algorithmic system like this (as long as it's coded correctly) can consolidate all of that data into a clear projection, as soon as it comes in.
Henry Cuellar looking strong in Texas. If Democrats hold onto districts like his, it's an indication tonight won't be a disaster for the party. Of course, worth noting that Cuellar was primaried, and is often criticized by the left for being too socially conservative.
Here's what we already know re: abortion politics in the midterms: voters are prioritizing it in an unprecedented way. Democrats' efforts to put abortion at the center of these midterms were successful.
What we'll be assessing for the rest of the night: did those efforts help or hurt Democrats?
could be a number of things? Does it drive away pro-life voters (Dems typically win 20% or so of voters who think abortion should be illegal)? Independents?
I went down a Blake Masters-Peter Thiel rabbit hole last week and it’s confusing. How they get from Rene Girard to VC-background “critics” of tech impact on society is confusing.
Michael. I cannot with Walker. How. I mean I understand why and how. But it's just so disheartening. Why can't everyone listen to your podcast and come to their senses
Polls just closed in Illinois, my original home state. House Districts 6 (Casten) and 14 (Underwood) both have vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Friends back in Illinois, of all political persuasions, speak highly of Casten and Underwood and it would be a shame for Congress to lose them.
The most surprising thing tonight is how few surprises there have been. I only can count the gigantic Republican margins in FL (which matter much more for the upcoming DeSantis-Trump battle, including if there even is one) and a few Democratic upsets in the House (but still probably not enough to hold the chamber). The polling average nailed this one, like it did in 2018.
indeed. Does look like Maloney might be going down though...which is a surprise historically speaking, though folks started putting up warning flags a few weeks ago
As a Floridian, it's really interesting to see how popular DeSantis is, in light of him being the face of the culture warrior movement. I guess that strikes a deeper cord than I thought, and frankly, am disheartened by it.
Same, Dana. I lived in Miami for two years -- the first two years of DeSantis' first term, essentially, though I moved after the 2018 election, and I was always like "ugh, is this guy really the governor here?"
Maxwell Frost, 25-years old, will represent Florida's 10th district in Congress. The first Gen-Z Member of Congress.
Wes Moore declared winner by some already in Maryland. Wes Moore is likely to be a national player quickly. People see a potential star.
Absolutely. He was almost incubated in a lab to be a perfect politician.
His book was a good start - and that was 10 years ago now
Readers of this newsletter will remember I've been suggesting for months that due to polarization, presidential approval rating may not be as significant as it has been historically. Significant numbers of voters who disapprove of Biden look to be supporting his party tonight.
Some analysts expressing optimism about Spanberger: https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1590156399912587265?s=20&t=uGELR0tMqM08Oamp7OMQDQ
Ahhh spanberger!!!!
Encouraging seeing at least one moderate Dem hold her seat! And love that rush of being reminded how our votes truly DO count....
https://twitter.com/SpanbergerVA07/status/1590187739676553217?t=XzCfqVBnFfe_TdKwIoz7Uw&s=19
I was a bit upset at how she ran her campaign and thought her ads about her opponents abortion position were borderline intellectually dishonest.
Agree to an extent- not a fan of our campaign culture and definitely saw her campaign bend to it. As her constituent, will continue to hold her accountable to a higher standard. We have much work to do to shift our culture & our politics
Come on Abigail!!!
I hope to see some MAGA extremists defeated, but also hope to see some Dem losses for a pretty extreme social agenda as their main messaging points.
lol I resonate with that brother
Looks more likely than not to me that Democrats hold onto the Senate at this point.
Checking in as we approach 10:30 PM...Democrats might be heading for a night in which they can claim they exceeded expectations.
Also really interested to see what happens in Utah... Hoping for an Evan win!
same, Blythe!
Woohoo McMuffin! I hope he can pull off one.
“McMuffin” is sending me, thank you for this comment. -Melissa
If Evan wins we're all eating celebratory McMuffins for breakfast in the morning
but I think it was popularized by Trump?
That feels like a very Trump thing, now I’m off to Google! -Melissa
c'mon Melissa all the cool kids ditched google years ago 😜
Also I would really enjoy if slang for search engine use changed from "google it" to "ask the ducks"
Imma go ask Saoirse 😌
That would bring so much hope!
Just finished up my day as an election official… I love doing it but having to redirect 20 or 30% of voters because they are at the wrong precinct feels like a big L for democracy.
Bless you!
I do it all for the $165 paycheck for a 14-hour shift. ;) It’s super fun, just leaves me wondering how many people actually make it to the right place when I turn them away.
thank you for serving your community well!
At what point does it make sense for the technology to allow voters to vote from the "wrong" precinct, as long as it's within like the same county or district and on the same system?
THIS. it’s especially confusing because in our (urban) county, you can vote anywhere during early voting but can only vote at your precinct day of. Also, suburban counties near us allow people to vote anywhere on Election Day. Of course people are confused!
I'm so thankful that the live thread is up and running! This is by far my favorite feature of the Substack and I love connecting with you all. I voted over lunch and there was no line for me, however, I'm hearing reports of very long lines over my city/state in general (Madison, WI). A few polling locations near the university required extra ballots to be delivered. This is interesting to me as I'm hearing mixed results about turn out in other states. Wisconsin has the oldest abortion law in the US (the law bans abortion). I've heard commentators mention that where abortion is under threat, there are larger turn outs and I think the turn out from Wisconsin will support that hypothesis. My ballot had a referral on it asking if the abortion ban should be repealed (fun fact - my realtor wrote the ballot question)! I'll be looking for the results of that question. I work in healthcare and the WI law is causing a lot of stress because it's difficult to interpret. There were two other questions related to marijuana legalization and expungement.
I'm watching for split ticket voting in Wisconsin as I think (& hope) our democratic governor will pull out a win, however, I could see other races going republican. But if the turn out does end up being big, a Mandela Barnes win is possible (although I dont think Barnes was a strong candidate and doubt his Catholic vote will where Biden's was). The Johnson v. Barnes race didn't have much national attention, but I think it will get more discussion in the postmortem analysis.
I'm also closely watching the Latina vote as was highlighted in the preview email. I love how the preview mentioned Catholic voters. I grew up evangelical in a very Catholic town and went to a Catholic school. My Catholic friends are all over the place on their political beliefs. Thank you for highlighting the Democrats' primary spending - that was disgusting. I find myself again hoping that any election denying, conspiracy wielding (most republican) candidates lose, yet I don't want the democrats to have too big of a win because they do not seem to understand. I live in a very white, progressive city and get easily annoyed/frustrated with white progressives.
Pulling for a Bennet win in CO and Underwood in IL! They have been guests on podcasts and was really impressed with both of them.
Lastly, I liked your final note in the preview. If republicans gain seats, it'll make Biden shine brighter and hopefully make democrats re-think some of their strategies, although I'm prepared to be disappointed on that front.
just here to say this is a tremendously impressive comment. thanks for joining us. really smart to look at Catholic vote in WI.
I'm watching the Arizona vote as I live here and hope we continue to have representation by Mark Kelly. Kari Lake and Blake Masters sued Maricopa County late this afternoon to have polling sites open for 3 additional hours but the judge rejected that appeal. I'm an Independent and to be transparent I tend to vote D but am so frustrated by the extreme positions especially on abortion many D politicians take. Messaging is so often tone deaf especially for the faith community. I live in Mesa and have been so impressed with our Mayor John Giles who is a Republican (of the Rusty Bower type, integrity and character) and has campaigned for Mark Kelly and Katy Hobbs. He is getting hammered by Republicans but he shows fearless courage and I would not hesitate to support him in the future. We need more D and R politician's who put integrity, character and principled decision making first.
Very important races in your state! We'll look to you to keep us posted on how things develop!
Agree with your sentiments here, and encouraging to read this!
From Jonathan Martin: "Top Dem monitoring House races tells me no path for majority but GOP gains only 10-15"
The way the House has unfolded tonight is really interesting.
It feels like it comes down to Warnock/Walker in the Senate to determine Senate majority. The GOP feels like it's headed into an interesting defining moment, with clashes between the Freedom Caucus and more establishment types vying for the Speakership and beyond. I can't really imagine things are super clean beyond tonight.
Lauren Underwood declared a winner!
So long as Democrats don't see major drop in Hispanic support out West, it is looking likely that Democrats may keep their losses under 20 seats or so.
Looks like Michael Bennet won easily.
As a Colorado native whose family is lukewarm on him, what is it that you like about Bennett?
also a CO native, and re Bennett, I'd say all of this: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hg6n2Rja_LA
Democrats performing better than I thought right now, but beware as this moves West if we're looking at a significant swing among Hispanic voters nationally.
Budd might run away with it with remaining votes, but Beasley has run a very strong campaign in North Carolina.
North Carolinian checking in here. I did not appreciate the regular hand written post cards from Beasley campaign touting abortion access. On balance and against Budd she is the better option. Glad she is running well but I wonder if as many were turned off as turned out by those tactics.
Fellow North Carolinian here. Interestingly I feel like I got so many more mailers from the Budd campaign and they were very negative. I don’t recall mailers from the Beasley campaign...but all the mailers go straight to the recycle bin. Very tired of negative campaigning.
I don’t see/hear many audio/video ads because of my media habits, but my 12 yr old daughter (who watches too much YouTube :)) has heard plenty of political ads there. The other day she asked me what liberal means. I asked her in what context. She said...”Cheri Beasley is too liberal...” Trying to explain to her what liberal means helped me know I need to continue learning in this context. The first thing that came to mind though was approach to abortion.
Thanks for sharing both of your experiences!
Florida looks to be solidly red this year. David Plouffe just said on MSNBC right now that "The Obama coalition, in Florida, is gone."
Florida was an outlier in both 2018 and 2020. It's fast to count, but don't over-interpret its results.
Dont like that. Any hope that DeSantis momentum contributed to that and if DeSantis isnt on the ballot it could be different?
On a side note, why is the MSNBC Kornacki Cam at such a weird angle? He is at-risk of his backside becoming a meme.
DeSantis' star will be brighter in GOP after tonight
Thankful for the space tonight! I'm in Spanberger's district and I'm anxious to see results.... but have avoided looking all day, trying to not let it consume my mind! Your morning 5 was perfect this morning Michael, thank you (and everyone who suggested the wonderful passages, some of my favorites!) Excited to be with you all tonight.
Woah! Your vote counts more than just about anyone else's!
The ads on cable were very cringe for that race.
A question I have: does the lack of clarity of Democrats' policy proposals other than general "support for abortion" turn away people of faith who otherwise could stomach a candidate who is pro-abortion with some clear and defined restrictions?
Obviously, we'll have more data in time, but with the importance of abortion being at least notable in these midterms, I'd be interested in observing.
I wonder that myself.
me too, friends!
My congressional district was divided in 3 in pretty blatant, unapologetic gerrymandering. I’m in the only part that had even a chance of staying Democratic. Once he won the primary, the GOP nominee didn’t speak to the press and refused to debate his opponent. He’s looking very likely to win. How can I reclaim hope in the face of this, which feels so cynical?
Curious to see what happens in PA between Oz/Fetterman -- but certainly have my eye on my home state (specifically Johnson/Barnes).
My question is: do miracles still happen, and if yes, can we get one in the Texas guber? Name it. Claim it. Do whatever we have to do. ;) But you know, also preparing for the testing of my faith blah blah blah...
Love from CA!
love you, buddy! Texas has a TON of interesting races today
I'm in PA so watching the Oz/Fetterman senate race and the Mastriano/Shapiro governor race with much angst. A more broad question I keep pondering is candidate quality and why the parties seem to be struggling in some states to get decent candidates to run. It feels a bit like we've lost our way and none of this represents me or my community (which was supposed to be the whole point!).
Shapiro should win quite easily. Oz/Fetterman is so unpredictable, I think.
NBC saying that the large democratic turnout is because trump teased his election run? Keying in on the Lauren Boebert v. Frisch CO race!
Circling back here because this race is fascinating. Sam, the needle now has Boebert only winning by 0.7% and she is currently down by a little more than 1.5% with 88% of the vote counted. She may win but with nothing like the expected margin. Feels like something happened here that we all missed.
See, this is why people need to pay attention to things like the NYT needle, not partial vote totals. They still project Boebert winning by 12. Don't get your hopes up.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html
Appreciate this thread gang, three things I’m watching: Texas, specifically Harris County (large GOP efforts to alter voting laws there, big push to try and recapture from the GOP and I’m a big Lina Hidalgo guy), the Paxton / Abbott delta, and more generally the delta between the traditional versus MAGA candidates.
I'm looking forward to see what happens with the senate and gubernatorial elections in my home state of Ohio and to see how things shake out in my current state of California. I'm sharing my excitement over voting with my family members in Ohio without getting into the details of who voted for what and hoping we can all keep things cool tonight and tomorrow.
one of my Columbus friends reported a 50 minute wait to vote mid-morning and by end of the day the line was wrapped around the building and down the street. Big turnout there!
Hello all, tuning in from Singapore! I probably won't have the same issues as you all with wondering how late to stay up, haha...
Thanks Michael and Melissa for doing this, as always! I'm watching, at least at first, the competitive House races in my home state Virginia, including Rep. Spanberger's contest just down the road from my home district, that Michael flagged in this morning's preview. After that, super interested in the Pennsylvania Senate race though I understand that might not be called for a while.
The needle is back! https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-needle-forecast.html
For those following it, NYT's needle was initially coded up incorrectly with an extra safe D seat in Louisiana. They're updating and it sounds like it will start out with a 51% chance of a Republican Senate, which is closer to 538's forecasts.
And for those not following it, you really should. There is way too much confusing partial data coming in all over the country for even the best humans (and whatever species Steve Kornacki is) to parse. An algorithmic system like this (as long as it's coded correctly) can consolidate all of that data into a clear projection, as soon as it comes in.
Sam is our resident defender of data and algorithms
They're powerful tools, but it's also important to remember to point them in the right direction!
My state has a lot of judicial races on the ballot as well.
Georgia Senate just tightened considerably.
Watch Jennifer Wexton's race in Virginia's 10th. Gonna be close.
Henry Cuellar looking strong in Texas. If Democrats hold onto districts like his, it's an indication tonight won't be a disaster for the party. Of course, worth noting that Cuellar was primaried, and is often criticized by the left for being too socially conservative.
SD27: LaMantia (D) 51%, Hinojosa (R) 49%
CD15: De la Cruz-Hernandez (R) 52%, Vallejo (D) 48%
CD28: Cuellar (D) 58%, Garcia (R) 42%
CD34: Gonzalez (D) 55%, Flores (R) 45%
What questions do y'all have?
I think Oz is looking plausible in PA. I think Warnock is looking like he could win in GA.
Say more about PA... What's making Oz look plausible?
Will Ron DeSantis run?
JD Vance is running so far behind Mike DeWine. What gives?
Marco Rubio already declared winner in Florida. Pretty remarkable.
They've really figured out how to count the votes since 2000!
Here's what we already know re: abortion politics in the midterms: voters are prioritizing it in an unprecedented way. Democrats' efforts to put abortion at the center of these midterms were successful.
What we'll be assessing for the rest of the night: did those efforts help or hurt Democrats?
What do you make of the Kentucky resolution?
The American people now, for the first time in 50 years, clearly view pro-lifers as the aggressors in the culture war over abortion
is "hurt" here assuming that some moderate Democrats disliked the extremity of D. positions on abortion?
could be a number of things? Does it drive away pro-life voters (Dems typically win 20% or so of voters who think abortion should be illegal)? Independents?
How will you be able to assess that from election night results? Exit polling?
exit polling. assessing where the parties are strong and where they are weak.
Really, really disappointed to see Vance win. Of all the transparently power hungry types, his rise to power is the most...disappointing.
Agree Austin. Was truly hoping he wouldn't
And scary. And hi Blythe :)
Hiiii! And yes. Scary.
I'm with you. I especially dislike the Peter Theil money.
I went down a Blake Masters-Peter Thiel rabbit hole last week and it’s confusing. How they get from Rene Girard to VC-background “critics” of tech impact on society is confusing.
Michael. I cannot with Walker. How. I mean I understand why and how. But it's just so disheartening. Why can't everyone listen to your podcast and come to their senses
We have much work to do.
The chance that control of the Senate comes down to a runoff in Georgia -- again -- is rising. Just to prepare everyone for another month of this.
Polls just closed in Illinois, my original home state. House Districts 6 (Casten) and 14 (Underwood) both have vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Friends back in Illinois, of all political persuasions, speak highly of Casten and Underwood and it would be a shame for Congress to lose them.
Indeed
The most surprising thing tonight is how few surprises there have been. I only can count the gigantic Republican margins in FL (which matter much more for the upcoming DeSantis-Trump battle, including if there even is one) and a few Democratic upsets in the House (but still probably not enough to hold the chamber). The polling average nailed this one, like it did in 2018.
indeed. Does look like Maloney might be going down though...which is a surprise historically speaking, though folks started putting up warning flags a few weeks ago
New York's gerrymandering adventures this redistricting cycle seem really consequential with so many of these close races there leaning R now.
OK Gov didn't end up being as interesting as it looked for awhile; but definitely was one to follow!
bummer
If Kemp and Warnock both win, what is the reason why?
Walker's a bad candidate and Kemp's a really good one.
What are your thoughts on NH
Hassan looks strong. I think she would have won against anyone other than Sununu.
What will it take for all 50 states to count votes as efficiently as the good ones?
robots
The issue with robots is that they consistently claim Siri wins as a write in candidate.
Well, this is something that I might be able to help with!
As a Floridian, it's really interesting to see how popular DeSantis is, in light of him being the face of the culture warrior movement. I guess that strikes a deeper cord than I thought, and frankly, am disheartened by it.
Same, Dana. I lived in Miami for two years -- the first two years of DeSantis' first term, essentially, though I moved after the 2018 election, and I was always like "ugh, is this guy really the governor here?"
never forget where Schlafly came from
I'm new to Florida, been here about a year and a half. DeSantis has a similar energy with his supporters as Trump, though different.