Friends, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe and send abortion decisions back to the states (for now, at least), and the requisite fallout so far, I have a few stray reflections to share. I also have a few additional comments about the
Too many people think bipartisanship is getting the other party to help implement your preferred policy. Kinda frustrating we didn't get a victory lap for the bipartisan gun legislation to illustrate the situation.
Your framework is great, I think Josh Marshall has offered a more politically viable path to getting to a place where it could be enacted, see his NYT op-ed "Democrats Can Win This Fall if They Make One Key Promise".
Democrats are more liable to accept compromise not because they are virtuous, but because they are losing. Dobbs has put them back on their heels, your framework can be understood as a tactical retreat. Republicans are halfway to the promise they have made since 1984, a national ban on abortion. It is a glorious victory, payment is due after decades of toil. Why compromise when you are winning?
Also, most abortions are early term. Strong pro-choice Democrats can console themselves under your framework, numerically we win. I see no similar comfort for strong pro-life Republicans. It would be a shattering loss, defeat snatched from the hands of victory. An unconscionable betrayal. Only Collins and Murkowski could vote for it.
The needed compromise is within the Democratic Party. Marshall puts forward the best path to getting to an up or down vote, and he has made progress extracting promises from key Senators since. Once there only a bill like yours would be so popular I can imagine it surviving a Republican trifecta. Could the Democrats resist spiking the ball and expanding abortion rights beyond Roe? I hope so.
In the meantime the filibuster is an unsurmountable obstacle to any bill. No, your framework cannot get 10 Republican votes. It can get two.
Marshall offers a route to getting past the filibuster. Once only 50 votes are needed your framework would have a chance, the argument to Democrats is durability. Only a moderate and bi-partisan bill will be popular, and only a popular bill will survive the next Republican trifecta.
Another arguments to get Democrats to compromise: 2024. Putting a chronic divisive issue to rest with a popular compromise would be huge.
Too many people think bipartisanship is getting the other party to help implement your preferred policy. Kinda frustrating we didn't get a victory lap for the bipartisan gun legislation to illustrate the situation.
Your framework is great, I think Josh Marshall has offered a more politically viable path to getting to a place where it could be enacted, see his NYT op-ed "Democrats Can Win This Fall if They Make One Key Promise".
Democrats are more liable to accept compromise not because they are virtuous, but because they are losing. Dobbs has put them back on their heels, your framework can be understood as a tactical retreat. Republicans are halfway to the promise they have made since 1984, a national ban on abortion. It is a glorious victory, payment is due after decades of toil. Why compromise when you are winning?
Also, most abortions are early term. Strong pro-choice Democrats can console themselves under your framework, numerically we win. I see no similar comfort for strong pro-life Republicans. It would be a shattering loss, defeat snatched from the hands of victory. An unconscionable betrayal. Only Collins and Murkowski could vote for it.
The needed compromise is within the Democratic Party. Marshall puts forward the best path to getting to an up or down vote, and he has made progress extracting promises from key Senators since. Once there only a bill like yours would be so popular I can imagine it surviving a Republican trifecta. Could the Democrats resist spiking the ball and expanding abortion rights beyond Roe? I hope so.
In the meantime the filibuster is an unsurmountable obstacle to any bill. No, your framework cannot get 10 Republican votes. It can get two.
Marshall offers a route to getting past the filibuster. Once only 50 votes are needed your framework would have a chance, the argument to Democrats is durability. Only a moderate and bi-partisan bill will be popular, and only a popular bill will survive the next Republican trifecta.
Another arguments to get Democrats to compromise: 2024. Putting a chronic divisive issue to rest with a popular compromise would be huge.