Tonight’s the first debate with all of the top candidates sharing a single stage, so I thought we’d try something new. I’ll provide live analysis and thoughts throughout the evening, and would love to hear from you as well. Let’s watch the debate together!
Before the debate begins, tell me what YOU are looking for tonight.
The most important, strategic thing that happened tonight was Joe Biden tying Warren to Bernie. Watch that thread over the coming days.
The top three front-runners basically held serve in my view. I thought Harris did not have a good night, but recovered a bit in the last hour. Booker and Klobuchar have got to be happy with their performances. Buttigieg and Beto were fine, overall, but I don't expect them to see a major spike in polling that would put them in the top-tier. Castro falsely attacked Biden in a pretty underhanded way, and that was not a good look. He did have a very strong closing statement.
I loved that opening statement from Klobuchar. Says that if you feel stuck between two political extremes, you have a home with her. (Suggests my opening question regarding her candidacy might have been right)
Love this entire thread, friends. I might suggest that you make it available in your next Top post, as it’s helpful for processing. As a midwesterner, I identify with Klob in many ways, feeling stuck between the Left’s academic elitism and the Right’s 1% love, if you get my drift!
Really powerful moment from Beto here. All the praise from others didn't take oxygen away from when he got to speak. Also, maybe I'm reading the body language incorrectly, but Booker seems frustrated that Beto gets the label that gun violence is personal for him.
1. Does Sen. Warren maintain her relentless commitment?
2. Does Sen. Harris have to play defense as she did in July, or will she be able to stay on the offensive now that her poll numbers have dipped, Tulsi Gabbard isn't there, etc.?
3. Does Sen. Booker build on his strong July performance, and is his team ready to capitalize on it if he does?
4. What does the "new Beto" look like, and will he be any more effective?
5. Does Sen. Klobuchar (aka #TheKLOB) put herself forward more strongly as the moderate alternative to Biden?
6. Just how much oppo is unloaded on Biden tonight, and is it driven by the candidates or the moderators?
Ah, first question should be 1. Does Sen. Warren maintain her relentless commitment to not attacking her fellow candidates, or is she pulled into conflict tonight?
Here's a big one: 7. Media and some voters are primed to be on the lookout for Biden "gaffes" or signs of his age...three-hours is a LONG time to be on a stage with bright lights. Does Biden make it through the night without a campaign-altering moment?
I'm not going to comment much, but wanted to say that I love reading everyone's thoughts and like this idea of a smaller chat (as opposed to twitter) a lot so thank you Michael Wear.
Looks like Beto and Buttigieg have decided to chip at the 30-40% who support Warren/Sanders as opposed to the 30% that support Biden in the first 30 minutes of this debate.
I just think voters have an issue with the fact that we "fundamentally transformed health care" in 2010 after fighting for that kind of reform since at least Truman, all these Senators voted for it, and now Sanders/Warren want to completely scrap that and support a $30 trillion overhaul?
Will anyone deviate from totally pro-choice, no exceptions? May not even come up tonight... but it really matters for my vote and I know I’m not alone.
I feel like health care has gotten more expensive since The Affordable Care Act and the Health Insurance Companies have become so much more difficult to work with. I like that Bernie’s plan gets rid of these companies
No. In theory the ACA sounded like it should have been great, but insurance companies are corrupt....I suppose they might think (and it could be true) that without ACA, insurance companies could have gotten just as expensive as it is now or more. Who knows?
Sen. Harris is going to try to be relentless in pivoting from earlier in this race, and position herself as a unifier. Will others push her on that, or let her make the claim?
Booker's response there was really strong. There is a sense (at least for me) that O'Rourke is rather performative and come-lately on racism. Booker added some depth and pragmatism to the conversation in a really powerful way there. He didn't go after O'Rourke, but he dismissed him in a delicate way while giving a strong answer himself.
I was just writing something on this. So much of the rhetoric on racism is too "of the moment," as if they just read the latest article and want to ride that wave. Who will cut through it with just plain, honest language. Booker's answer before and now on CJ reform are very good.
Beto reminds me of how I spoke immediately following first reading The New Jim Crow. I acted as though I just found this secret book that allowed me to understand more than everyone else. In reality I was playing catch-up and sounded like kind of a butt.
I'm watching for a Castro breakout. This may be his last chance. I've been pulling for him to be the Warren alternative (wonky but not far-left economically).
He also will have a hometown crowd. As we saw with the Gingrich-Romney exchanges in 2012, the crowd response to what you say can make a huge difference in how it is perceived.
The most important, strategic thing that happened tonight was Joe Biden tying Warren to Bernie. Watch that thread over the coming days.
The top three front-runners basically held serve in my view. I thought Harris did not have a good night, but recovered a bit in the last hour. Booker and Klobuchar have got to be happy with their performances. Buttigieg and Beto were fine, overall, but I don't expect them to see a major spike in polling that would put them in the top-tier. Castro falsely attacked Biden in a pretty underhanded way, and that was not a good look. He did have a very strong closing statement.
I loved that opening statement from Klobuchar. Says that if you feel stuck between two political extremes, you have a home with her. (Suggests my opening question regarding her candidacy might have been right)
The line "you have a home with me" is a good one for making that argument!
Love this entire thread, friends. I might suggest that you make it available in your next Top post, as it’s helpful for processing. As a midwesterner, I identify with Klob in many ways, feeling stuck between the Left’s academic elitism and the Right’s 1% love, if you get my drift!
Booker and Klobuchar have had great nights so far. Biden strong, and really, really smart to tie Warren to Bernie.
I know I'm a broken record on this, but Sen. Booker is going to pop in this campaign.
Just remember: The median Hispanic voter is more moderate on immigration reform than is often assumed
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/19/latinos-have-become-less-likely-to-say-there-are-too-many-immigrants-in-u-s/
Really powerful moment from Beto here. All the praise from others didn't take oxygen away from when he got to speak. Also, maybe I'm reading the body language incorrectly, but Booker seems frustrated that Beto gets the label that gun violence is personal for him.
Beto's story about the mother in Odessa,TX and passion and directness made me cry. First time I cried in a debate this year.
Also, Booker's phrase "Show more courageous empathy" is a good one...
He is now explaining your comment
Really, really strong from Klobuchar on health care.
Yep
Here are some of my questions going into tonight:
1. Does Sen. Warren maintain her relentless commitment?
2. Does Sen. Harris have to play defense as she did in July, or will she be able to stay on the offensive now that her poll numbers have dipped, Tulsi Gabbard isn't there, etc.?
3. Does Sen. Booker build on his strong July performance, and is his team ready to capitalize on it if he does?
4. What does the "new Beto" look like, and will he be any more effective?
5. Does Sen. Klobuchar (aka #TheKLOB) put herself forward more strongly as the moderate alternative to Biden?
6. Just how much oppo is unloaded on Biden tonight, and is it driven by the candidates or the moderators?
Ah, first question should be 1. Does Sen. Warren maintain her relentless commitment to not attacking her fellow candidates, or is she pulled into conflict tonight?
Here's a big one: 7. Media and some voters are primed to be on the lookout for Biden "gaffes" or signs of his age...three-hours is a LONG time to be on a stage with bright lights. Does Biden make it through the night without a campaign-altering moment?
Yes. #hopeful
I'm not going to comment much, but wanted to say that I love reading everyone's thoughts and like this idea of a smaller chat (as opposed to twitter) a lot so thank you Michael Wear.
Second this.
I hope there aren't closing statements, because these candidates are all using this question to say why they're running.
Not sure anything has happened in the last 40 minutes that matters for the race except that Booker is still very strong
Thanks for joining this conversation. Would love to have you as a subscriber here on Substack. You can subscribe at www.reclaiminghope.substack.com/subscribe
Looks like Beto and Buttigieg have decided to chip at the 30-40% who support Warren/Sanders as opposed to the 30% that support Biden in the first 30 minutes of this debate.
I just think voters have an issue with the fact that we "fundamentally transformed health care" in 2010 after fighting for that kind of reform since at least Truman, all these Senators voted for it, and now Sanders/Warren want to completely scrap that and support a $30 trillion overhaul?
Not certain it was that revolutionary
I'm quoting Sanders here
I know. And I’m doubtful of him. Not you.
ah, got it
"I think we should have a debate on health care. I know the Senator (Warren) says she's with Bernie, well I'm with Barack."
Sen. Harris really taking "debate performance" literally
Nothing on that Yang showing? hahah
STILL.
Eleanor, I was literally about to post this. Yes...it's just sooo much and so inauthentic and comes across as kind of manipulative
So interesting, and smart, for Castro to argue that he'll win back the Rust Belt. Force others to say WHY they'd be the ones to win it back.
Will anyone deviate from totally pro-choice, no exceptions? May not even come up tonight... but it really matters for my vote and I know I’m not alone.
I would be surprised if in 3 hours, Biden isn't pressed on this
Especially with George moderating
It would be beautiful if someone was that courageous
Who will cast the best, most compelling vision for the country, post-Trump?
Who have you been impressed with so far?
Klobuchar
For the love, can Pete Buttigieg have a breakout moment tonight. I am *ready* for it.
I'm not sure what a breakout moment looks for him, tbh...he definitely could use one though
I feel this debate has had more substance than some of the other ones.
We need baby pictures.
I don't know what to say to you, Chris lol
Answer the dubia.
I feel like health care has gotten more expensive since The Affordable Care Act and the Health Insurance Companies have become so much more difficult to work with. I like that Bernie’s plan gets rid of these companies
Does it bother you that Bernie voted for the ACA and stands by that vote?
No. In theory the ACA sounded like it should have been great, but insurance companies are corrupt....I suppose they might think (and it could be true) that without ACA, insurance companies could have gotten just as expensive as it is now or more. Who knows?
thanks for the reply!
You too. I love ur podcasts. I’m learning a lot about politics 😀
Mayor Pete is dialed in
Now that the debate is over, what are your takeaways?
Sen. Harris is going to try to be relentless in pivoting from earlier in this race, and position herself as a unifier. Will others push her on that, or let her make the claim?
Seems like she’s positioning as the one who reminds us who is in office
This has been the most interesting things with these debates. After the frontrunners have the debate, how does the rest of the field sort itself out?
Booker's response there was really strong. There is a sense (at least for me) that O'Rourke is rather performative and come-lately on racism. Booker added some depth and pragmatism to the conversation in a really powerful way there. He didn't go after O'Rourke, but he dismissed him in a delicate way while giving a strong answer himself.
I was just writing something on this. So much of the rhetoric on racism is too "of the moment," as if they just read the latest article and want to ride that wave. Who will cut through it with just plain, honest language. Booker's answer before and now on CJ reform are very good.
Beto reminds me of how I spoke immediately following first reading The New Jim Crow. I acted as though I just found this secret book that allowed me to understand more than everyone else. In reality I was playing catch-up and sounded like kind of a butt.
right
Do we have a baby photo for this debate? If not I might log off.
I literally don't think I can post photos on this thread
Hope
I'm watching for a Castro breakout. This may be his last chance. I've been pulling for him to be the Warren alternative (wonky but not far-left economically).
I agree. I also wonder if he'll go after Beto again tonight.
He also will have a hometown crowd. As we saw with the Gingrich-Romney exchanges in 2012, the crowd response to what you say can make a huge difference in how it is perceived.