We recently hit 9 pm. Here's what I'm seeing: Joe Biden's rationale, his case for being the best candidate, was never about the Sun Belt. It was never about GA/FL. It was about the Rust Belt. That is where this race will be won or lost. I'm seeing promising numbers overall in OH that bode well for PA/MI/WI. Concerned about Allegheny County in PA. Stay tuned.
With all the caveats about exit polling reliability generally, and pertaining to religion specifically, the early numbers from the NYT have white evangelicals holding at 27% of the electorate. Significant.
From Tim Alberta: "This is pretty straightforward. Looking at MI & WI right now, based on huge # of outstanding mail ballots in urban cores, you'd much rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump."
lol...from the NYT's Reid Epstein: "It is taking longer than expected to count the ballots in several places in Wisconsin because officials have found the machines do not count ballots as fast as they’d expected."
Pennsylvania is poised to turn around...Allegheny county has improved. Most of Philly out. I'm optimistic there. Optimistic about WI, based on exits (so a more flimsy optimism). Mostly concerned about MI.
Wisconsin Catholic numbers looking good...in 2012, when Obama won WI, he lost Catholics 56-44. AP Votecast has Biden only losing Catholics by 4 points.
Most interesting exit poll data I've seen so far (and we'll talk about why we have to be cautious about exit poll data this year especially) is that controlling the coronavirus is neck-and-neck with the economy as top issues for voters.
More than 60% of Americans are "very afraid" if their candidate loses. No matter who wins, this is unsustainable. So much the next president must attend to, but certainly this makes the list. https://t.co/Qcz78Ep69b?amp=1
It’s election night...but forget about winning campaigns for a minute. Think of how much we’d honor the Lord Jesus if urban Christians of color and white rural Christians worked together on a Bible inspired social agenda (life, equality, family etc.)
Michael, before logging off, just wanted to say thank you for what you and Melissa have done tonight, and over the past few years, to give people guidance. Whatever the result, it’s been a lasting comfort. Have a good night and a good morning.
Live Election Night Thread
Know it's hard...but be patient
"It takes a tough mind and a tender heart to hold onto hope." -Rev. Raphael Warnock
Identity politics is not serving the political class well.
OK, first exit polls of white evangelicals in Georgia. In 2016, Clinton only got 5% (that's right). Biden showing 14%.
We recently hit 9 pm. Here's what I'm seeing: Joe Biden's rationale, his case for being the best candidate, was never about the Sun Belt. It was never about GA/FL. It was about the Rust Belt. That is where this race will be won or lost. I'm seeing promising numbers overall in OH that bode well for PA/MI/WI. Concerned about Allegheny County in PA. Stay tuned.
With all the caveats about exit polling reliability generally, and pertaining to religion specifically, the early numbers from the NYT have white evangelicals holding at 27% of the electorate. Significant.
New WI numbers just came in. Biden now up by almost 11,000 votes with 89% reporting.
From Tim Alberta: "This is pretty straightforward. Looking at MI & WI right now, based on huge # of outstanding mail ballots in urban cores, you'd much rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump."
lol...from the NYT's Reid Epstein: "It is taking longer than expected to count the ballots in several places in Wisconsin because officials have found the machines do not count ballots as fast as they’d expected."
Pennsylvania is poised to turn around...Allegheny county has improved. Most of Philly out. I'm optimistic there. Optimistic about WI, based on exits (so a more flimsy optimism). Mostly concerned about MI.
Wisconsin Catholic numbers looking good...in 2012, when Obama won WI, he lost Catholics 56-44. AP Votecast has Biden only losing Catholics by 4 points.
Look at these initial numbers out of NYT. 53% of electorate female. 12% Black. 13% Hispanic. 65% white. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
Welcome! We're here!
Most interesting exit poll data I've seen so far (and we'll talk about why we have to be cautious about exit poll data this year especially) is that controlling the coronavirus is neck-and-neck with the economy as top issues for voters.
More than 60% of Americans are "very afraid" if their candidate loses. No matter who wins, this is unsustainable. So much the next president must attend to, but certainly this makes the list. https://t.co/Qcz78Ep69b?amp=1
It’s election night...but forget about winning campaigns for a minute. Think of how much we’d honor the Lord Jesus if urban Christians of color and white rural Christians worked together on a Bible inspired social agenda (life, equality, family etc.)
Michael, before logging off, just wanted to say thank you for what you and Melissa have done tonight, and over the past few years, to give people guidance. Whatever the result, it’s been a lasting comfort. Have a good night and a good morning.