But would you describe Biden as someone who campaigns on identity politics? I certainly wouldn't. Maybe more than he would have in 2008, but he's not close to where much of the party is as far as identity politics
As an example of why I've been insistent that these relatively small swings matter...let's take this example. If these numbers hold, it accounts for a swing of 326,400 votes in Georgia alone due to white evangelicals over Clinton's 2016 numbers. 326,400 votes!
It's just an example of exits and survey data not always matching up. My sample isn't huge, either. ~375 voter white evangelicals in Georgia. So I bet the MoE is +/- 6%
We recently hit 9 pm. Here's what I'm seeing: Joe Biden's rationale, his case for being the best candidate, was never about the Sun Belt. It was never about GA/FL. It was about the Rust Belt. That is where this race will be won or lost. I'm seeing promising numbers overall in OH that bode well for PA/MI/WI. Concerned about Allegheny County in PA. Stay tuned.
With all the caveats about exit polling reliability generally, and pertaining to religion specifically, the early numbers from the NYT have white evangelicals holding at 27% of the electorate. Significant.
Let me just describe why the exit polls aren't great on religion. They ask people if they identify as born-again or evangelical. For those with some knowledge of religious demography - that should be really just Protestants. But here's the reality: lots of non-Protestants say that they are evangelical. Including 15% of Catholics, 13% of Muslims, and 7% of Jews. So, while we may see exit poll numbers about how white evangelicals voted, just remember that they aren't all Protestants.
The differences aren't as stark as I would guessed. I was looking earlier and they are only off by a couple points overall in voter verified data. But that gets you from 81% of white evangelicals for Trump in 2016 to 77% in voter verified data.
From Tim Alberta: "This is pretty straightforward. Looking at MI & WI right now, based on huge # of outstanding mail ballots in urban cores, you'd much rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump."
lol...from the NYT's Reid Epstein: "It is taking longer than expected to count the ballots in several places in Wisconsin because officials have found the machines do not count ballots as fast as they’d expected."
Pennsylvania is poised to turn around...Allegheny county has improved. Most of Philly out. I'm optimistic there. Optimistic about WI, based on exits (so a more flimsy optimism). Mostly concerned about MI.
Wisconsin Catholic numbers looking good...in 2012, when Obama won WI, he lost Catholics 56-44. AP Votecast has Biden only losing Catholics by 4 points.
Most interesting exit poll data I've seen so far (and we'll talk about why we have to be cautious about exit poll data this year especially) is that controlling the coronavirus is neck-and-neck with the economy as top issues for voters.
More than 60% of Americans are "very afraid" if their candidate loses. No matter who wins, this is unsustainable. So much the next president must attend to, but certainly this makes the list. https://t.co/Qcz78Ep69b?amp=1
It’s election night...but forget about winning campaigns for a minute. Think of how much we’d honor the Lord Jesus if urban Christians of color and white rural Christians worked together on a Bible inspired social agenda (life, equality, family etc.)
What do people think about 3rd Parties? The American Solidarity Party matches my values far more than the 2 major parties. https://solidarity-party.org/
Serious party building (3rd Party or major party restructuring) has to start local. I’d rather see congressional and state legislative races vs presidential candidates.
Michael, before logging off, just wanted to say thank you for what you and Melissa have done tonight, and over the past few years, to give people guidance. Whatever the result, it’s been a lasting comfort. Have a good night and a good morning.
Know it's hard...but be patient
"It takes a tough mind and a tender heart to hold onto hope." -Rev. Raphael Warnock
Identity politics is not serving the political class well.
You can say that again.
Could you say more about what tonight specifically makes you say that?
A complete lack of understanding about what it means to reach non-white voters
maybe "complete" is unfair
But would you describe Biden as someone who campaigns on identity politics? I certainly wouldn't. Maybe more than he would have in 2008, but he's not close to where much of the party is as far as identity politics
+100
😕
OK, first exit polls of white evangelicals in Georgia. In 2016, Clinton only got 5% (that's right). Biden showing 14%.
As an example of why I've been insistent that these relatively small swings matter...let's take this example. If these numbers hold, it accounts for a swing of 326,400 votes in Georgia alone due to white evangelicals over Clinton's 2016 numbers. 326,400 votes!
That is a crazy number for Biden.
In the 2016 CCES in Georgia among white evangelicals. I have Trump at 85%, Clinton at 13%.
Cooperative Congressional Election Studies?
So wait, I might be missing, is Ryan saying that the number for Clinton is 13% as opposed to the 5 Michael mentioned?
It's just an example of exits and survey data not always matching up. My sample isn't huge, either. ~375 voter white evangelicals in Georgia. So I bet the MoE is +/- 6%
We recently hit 9 pm. Here's what I'm seeing: Joe Biden's rationale, his case for being the best candidate, was never about the Sun Belt. It was never about GA/FL. It was about the Rust Belt. That is where this race will be won or lost. I'm seeing promising numbers overall in OH that bode well for PA/MI/WI. Concerned about Allegheny County in PA. Stay tuned.
We're in Allegheny County. It would be shocking to see it go for Trump, but the Pittsburgh Post Gazette endorsed him this week, so who knows...
With all the caveats about exit polling reliability generally, and pertaining to religion specifically, the early numbers from the NYT have white evangelicals holding at 27% of the electorate. Significant.
Let me just describe why the exit polls aren't great on religion. They ask people if they identify as born-again or evangelical. For those with some knowledge of religious demography - that should be really just Protestants. But here's the reality: lots of non-Protestants say that they are evangelical. Including 15% of Catholics, 13% of Muslims, and 7% of Jews. So, while we may see exit poll numbers about how white evangelicals voted, just remember that they aren't all Protestants.
Yes, all of this. Though interesting that they have generally been in the realm of vote-verified surveys, right?
The differences aren't as stark as I would guessed. I was looking earlier and they are only off by a couple points overall in voter verified data. But that gets you from 81% of white evangelicals for Trump in 2016 to 77% in voter verified data.
yeah, that's what I see
If this holds around 27-28%, it bodes well for Trump, correct?
yes, very well. It keeps him in it.
New WI numbers just came in. Biden now up by almost 11,000 votes with 89% reporting.
From Tim Alberta: "This is pretty straightforward. Looking at MI & WI right now, based on huge # of outstanding mail ballots in urban cores, you'd much rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump."
lol...from the NYT's Reid Epstein: "It is taking longer than expected to count the ballots in several places in Wisconsin because officials have found the machines do not count ballots as fast as they’d expected."
Pennsylvania is poised to turn around...Allegheny county has improved. Most of Philly out. I'm optimistic there. Optimistic about WI, based on exits (so a more flimsy optimism). Mostly concerned about MI.
based on what is outstanding in PA, in particular.
Wisconsin Catholic numbers looking good...in 2012, when Obama won WI, he lost Catholics 56-44. AP Votecast has Biden only losing Catholics by 4 points.
Wisconsin White Catholics in 2016:
58% for Trump
35% for Clinton
7% for third parties.
right...this is overall Catholics, just to be clear
Look at these initial numbers out of NYT. 53% of electorate female. 12% Black. 13% Hispanic. 65% white. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
Welcome! We're here!
Most interesting exit poll data I've seen so far (and we'll talk about why we have to be cautious about exit poll data this year especially) is that controlling the coronavirus is neck-and-neck with the economy as top issues for voters.
Any word on which candidates are preferred by people citing the economy?
Seems to favor Trump, a bit. But will clarify as night goes on.
More than 60% of Americans are "very afraid" if their candidate loses. No matter who wins, this is unsustainable. So much the next president must attend to, but certainly this makes the list. https://t.co/Qcz78Ep69b?amp=1
It’s election night...but forget about winning campaigns for a minute. Think of how much we’d honor the Lord Jesus if urban Christians of color and white rural Christians worked together on a Bible inspired social agenda (life, equality, family etc.)
Amen
Love this
What do people think about 3rd Parties? The American Solidarity Party matches my values far more than the 2 major parties. https://solidarity-party.org/
Serious party building (3rd Party or major party restructuring) has to start local. I’d rather see congressional and state legislative races vs presidential candidates.
Michael, before logging off, just wanted to say thank you for what you and Melissa have done tonight, and over the past few years, to give people guidance. Whatever the result, it’s been a lasting comfort. Have a good night and a good morning.
Thanks, Garrett!