Here we are! Looking forward to tonight with you all. You can see my post earlier today for my predictions, but as a reminder, tonight we’ll be using this thread for conversation and for more extensive analysis. I’d love for you to check in on the thread throughout the night. I’ll also try to answer as many of your questions as possible. Over on Twitter, I’ll provide more quickfire thoughts.
To start us off, let me offer three states and one number to watch:
Three states will help us determine earlier in the night what the outcome of Super Tuesday will be: Texas, Virginia and Massachusetts. In Massachusetts, it’s Warren’s state, but if Biden is running a close second or third, or obviously if he’s winning, then it bodes well for his campaign. In Virginia, where Bernie has spent important time and resources, if Biden wins by not just 5 or 10, but by 20 or 25, that suggests a very strong night for Biden. Finally, and most importantly, if Biden wins Texas, where Bernie has been polling ahead and where he’s very strong, that suggests Biden is set to shock the party and the nation. I think he can win Texas by 5-7 points.
Now, to be clear, this is not what needs to happen for Biden to have a successful night. A successful night for Biden is winning the South, and staying close enough to Bernie to keep a pledged delegate majority in play.
The number to watch is 15%. Where do Warren/Bloomberg hit the 15% threshold? Where? Do the states where they hit 15% tend to favor Biden or Sanders?
OK, we’re off to the races. I’m excited for tonight, and to experience it with all of you.
Let me add one other thing to watch here that we'll have a good sense of from the exit polls: Does Sanders' support among Hispanic voters in Nevada translate nationally? Does Biden's support among African-Americans in South Carolina translate nationally? Just remember what we learned from my interview with Rev. Gabriel Salguero: Latino voters are exceptionally politically diverse. We'll see how that translates to tonight.
Thanks for great analysis, Michael. Canada 🇨🇦 is watching tonight closely too (including all the Americans up here distressed by the current state of the union.)
Hi Michael! Curious, once a candidate gets the nomination, what do you think changes as far as faith outreach? Do they begin/amp up reaching out to conservatives more intentionally?
Looking at results on CNN, I see that American Samoa is voting today. Not many delegates, but still people made in God's image who should be considered in the political process.
Hi Michael, curious if you think there is a feasible good night for Warren here - that is, if she wins MA and clears 15% in most states, does that get taken seriously as a comeback?
Eh, let me revise. Maybe she wins MA and hits 15% in seven states, but that really puts her more in a position of being a power broker at the convention, it doesn't give her a chance of winning the nomination outright. And she may hit 15% in seven states, but I don't think 10 or 11 is going to happen.
Hi Michael, I see a lot of my moderate friends warning about Sen. Sanders, comparing him in some ways to Trump as far as danger to country/decency in the oval office. This might be too loaded a question, but do you see a Sanders presidency in a similar way, or just find yourself drastically disagreeing with his policy? I want to be open to something I might be missing, seeing as I was born after the Cold War ended 😉
I wouldn't compare him to Trump, and in some ways I think his assessment of the economy is right (even if none of his core proposals will actually get through Congress). I wouldn't use the word dangerous, but it is true that many of his followers think it is worth real upheaval/disruption to achieve their political vision.
What do you expect in Minnesota with Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing Biden? Is Sanders gonna have a cake walk? Will everyone realize Amy dropped out?
One of the biggest question marks of the night. Really depends on early vote (how many Klobuchar voters already voted?). I think Bernie will win Minnesota, but Biden will do much better than he would have otherwise
These results seem to suggest that the recent emphasis on field operations among Democrats is a bit overblown. Yes, field can make THE difference in tight races, but at the presidential level in particular, a strong field operation cannot make the candidate. No one has ever hired as many staff as Bloomberg. Sanders and Warren constantly bragged about their operations. Biden doesn't even have offices in some of these states he's winning. Yes, where he has an operation, it's strong, and his campaign manager is one of the best organizers I know. I'm not saying field isn't important...I'm just saying breathless coverage of campaign infrastructure in the states may not be warranted.
It's super, super early, but one potentially sour note for Biden (and there aren't many of them so far!), is that Bloomberg is currently passing the 15% threshold in states Biden is winning like OK, TN and NC...again though, <5% reporting.
Incredible. No religious questions in the VA exit poll. Not one. Yet they ask questions pertaining to demographics that account for less than 10% of the population. Absolute malpractice.
A serious question, although a presumptuous one: do you think Biden would seriously consider a Republican and could that Republican be Condoleezza Rice?
I'm making dinner for the fam, and hanging out with Saoirse until 7 PM EST. I'll join you all back here then!
Hope y'all feel well-served...our predictions have turned out to be mostly on point.
Let me add one other thing to watch here that we'll have a good sense of from the exit polls: Does Sanders' support among Hispanic voters in Nevada translate nationally? Does Biden's support among African-Americans in South Carolina translate nationally? Just remember what we learned from my interview with Rev. Gabriel Salguero: Latino voters are exceptionally politically diverse. We'll see how that translates to tonight.
Thanks for great analysis, Michael. Canada 🇨🇦 is watching tonight closely too (including all the Americans up here distressed by the current state of the union.)
Hi Michael! Curious, once a candidate gets the nomination, what do you think changes as far as faith outreach? Do they begin/amp up reaching out to conservatives more intentionally?
oh dear God I hope so, and that's what I'll be pushing for in public and in private
Looking at results on CNN, I see that American Samoa is voting today. Not many delegates, but still people made in God's image who should be considered in the political process.
And apparently, the source of Gabbard’s first delegate! (If the results I saw hold.)
Hi Michael, curious if you think there is a feasible good night for Warren here - that is, if she wins MA and clears 15% in most states, does that get taken seriously as a comeback?
It would register, but it's not going to happen
Eh, let me revise. Maybe she wins MA and hits 15% in seven states, but that really puts her more in a position of being a power broker at the convention, it doesn't give her a chance of winning the nomination outright. And she may hit 15% in seven states, but I don't think 10 or 11 is going to happen.
Hi Michael, I see a lot of my moderate friends warning about Sen. Sanders, comparing him in some ways to Trump as far as danger to country/decency in the oval office. This might be too loaded a question, but do you see a Sanders presidency in a similar way, or just find yourself drastically disagreeing with his policy? I want to be open to something I might be missing, seeing as I was born after the Cold War ended 😉
Also I'm five minutes into the recent Faith 2020 so if that episode answers this question please disregard as I will listen to it once I leave work.
I wouldn't compare him to Trump, and in some ways I think his assessment of the economy is right (even if none of his core proposals will actually get through Congress). I wouldn't use the word dangerous, but it is true that many of his followers think it is worth real upheaval/disruption to achieve their political vision.
What do you expect in Minnesota with Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing Biden? Is Sanders gonna have a cake walk? Will everyone realize Amy dropped out?
One of the biggest question marks of the night. Really depends on early vote (how many Klobuchar voters already voted?). I think Bernie will win Minnesota, but Biden will do much better than he would have otherwise
These results seem to suggest that the recent emphasis on field operations among Democrats is a bit overblown. Yes, field can make THE difference in tight races, but at the presidential level in particular, a strong field operation cannot make the candidate. No one has ever hired as many staff as Bloomberg. Sanders and Warren constantly bragged about their operations. Biden doesn't even have offices in some of these states he's winning. Yes, where he has an operation, it's strong, and his campaign manager is one of the best organizers I know. I'm not saying field isn't important...I'm just saying breathless coverage of campaign infrastructure in the states may not be warranted.
What a night so far
It's super, super early, but one potentially sour note for Biden (and there aren't many of them so far!), is that Bloomberg is currently passing the 15% threshold in states Biden is winning like OK, TN and NC...again though, <5% reporting.
I saw some speculation that those are mail-in and early vote tallies and the election day vote may be different - more reflective of Biden's surge.
This is true! Can definitely change!
Incredible. No religious questions in the VA exit poll. Not one. Yet they ask questions pertaining to demographics that account for less than 10% of the population. Absolute malpractice.
A serious question, although a presumptuous one: do you think Biden would seriously consider a Republican and could that Republican be Condoleezza Rice?
no...not in this environment