A big debate in Atlanta tonight. Let’s join together again this evening to watch the debate together.
I want to know what you’re looking for tonight, but here are my thoughts:
I’m convinced Pete Buttigieg’s surge is real, but I see no evidence his support is more solid than, Joe Biden’s, for instance. While media and pundits built a narrative around Biden’s inevitable decline (for the record, I think Biden is still very much in the running for the nomination), you’re seeing folks act like Iowa votes tomorrow and Pete’s solid. I could have more confidence in Pete after seeing how he handles tonight. Yes, he’s fortunate Castro will not be on stage, as Castro would have went straight at him, but he’s still going to face real incoming. Let’s see how criticisms of his record (and his lack of one) land.
Is this Harris’ last hurrah? She’s up with an ad today, but her numbers are still stagnant and she’s in real danger of winning less than ten points in her own home state. She can’t allow that to happen. I would not be surprised if she used all her ammunition tonight, waits for the dust to settle, and if she’s not seeing new reasons for hope, she’ll drop out before the next debate.
Is Biden enlivened by the state of the race, or does he get lost in the fray?
Warren has been disciplined in not criticizing fellow Democrats in previous debates, in large part I think to avoid taking incoming herself, but that might change in this one. Does Warren go after Buttigieg? Does she seek to make a case against Bernie?
Amy Klobuchar is on the right track. Can she continue her steady approach with another solid debate tonight, in the hopes that she will be in position to catch lightning at just the right time in the new year?
Is Yang just happy to be on the stage, or does he do anything tonight that suggests he actually wants to be taken seriously as a contender?
Here’s a prediction: the audience will play a big role in tonight’s debate. Be on the lookout for candidates’ attempts to get the audience engaged, provoke a reaction from the crowd to emphasis a narrative point. I have something even more specific in mind, but I’ll keep it under my hat for now. :)
Those are some of my thoughts heading into tonight. I’ll be ten minutes or so late to the thread tonight as I get back to my hotel from a meeting, but I’ll be eager to catch up on the conversation.
Not sure if that's bad or good for Pete. If he is criticized, he might go down hard, but he also might have a chance to rise up and have a moment. I wonder if other campaigns think his hype will die off naturally and don't want to risk giving him an opportunity for a big moment.
I disagree with some of Harris' family policy around leave and related issues, but politically for her that answer was remarkably strong...best answer of the campaign for her imo
Interesting how he connects being at church with growing wealth and entrepreneurship...wonder if that was intentional? Or maybe he just wanted to mention church/faith while giving an answer about the economy...
Maybe it should have been assumed, but I think it's interesting they're opening with impeachment here. I would imagine some of the campaigns are less happy about that than others.
Goodness this Medicare debate is uselessly repetitive. They had a weeks to come up with a question that would shed light on some new aspect of the disagreement...
By the way, if you appreciate this forum and are not already a subscriber to this newsletter, we'd love for you to join our community: reclaiminghope.substack.com/subscribe
Well...to be honest, not sure if its the questions asked or just the candidates pivoting to Trump...I'd have to look back more closely. But it seems we are back to the policy!
Equally excited for tonight. I'm curious, Michael, if you think Booker will pick up some of the attacks on Buttigieg that Castro will miss? There's a lot of chatter about the similarities in Booker and Buttigieg's background and how Booker is not getting the same attention for some of the same accolades (Rhodes Scholarship the most discussed that I've seen). Normally I wouldn't take Booker as the type to do such, but his tweet of an Onion article suggested maybe a more adversarial position, imo.
I do think Booker will pick up some of those attacks, but his profile and demeanor is different than Castro and likely won’t have the same kind of effect. Which is not to say he can’t take some wind out of Pete’s sails...we’ll see how it plays!
Finally! A paid leave/child care question
Amazing that no one is even attempting to criticize Pete tonight really...weird, tbh
At this point it seems to me like it's a calculated attempt to not give him more talking time. Is that possible?
Kamala was even given the easiest chance to attack Pete, and she didn't take it!
Not sure if that's bad or good for Pete. If he is criticized, he might go down hard, but he also might have a chance to rise up and have a moment. I wonder if other campaigns think his hype will die off naturally and don't want to risk giving him an opportunity for a big moment.
Yeah, literally everything I read predicted he would be attacked...
I disagree with some of Harris' family policy around leave and related issues, but politically for her that answer was remarkably strong...best answer of the campaign for her imo
Klobuchar is on track again tonight so far
Goodness, several good moments for Klobuchar
love the "name your favorite woman president" bit lol
Kamala has been saving that counterpunch on Tulsi since, like, the second debate
Not a fan of Gabbard, but Kamala's ad hominem attack is not a good look imo...
1) Booker first to reference church/faith 2) Booker really pivoting his campaign here over the last week.
Interesting how he connects being at church with growing wealth and entrepreneurship...wonder if that was intentional? Or maybe he just wanted to mention church/faith while giving an answer about the economy...
Maybe it should have been assumed, but I think it's interesting they're opening with impeachment here. I would imagine some of the campaigns are less happy about that than others.
Well, Bernie got exactly the question he could have hoped for.
https://twitter.com/kelsey_dallas/status/1197308361106055168?s=21
Why is Joe the only person to EVER bring up passing bills through Congress and whether it can be done?
Because he's one of the few to have actually accomplished anything
But couldn't this equally be a talking point of Harris or Booker?
Booker! Klobuchar!
Am embarrassed to have forgotten Klobuchar
Warren already has over 5 minutes of talking time - next closest is Mayor Pete with 2:43...
Yang now the only one not to speak, 32 minutes in.
oop, there he goes
Love this answer from Cory Booker on American values and foreign policy
No one has told Biden that civility is now a big no-no, and thank goodness. Great answer from Joe Biden.
Goodness this Medicare debate is uselessly repetitive. They had a weeks to come up with a question that would shed light on some new aspect of the disagreement...
Hahahahah MSNBC gives Biden the FIFTH question of the debate, and it’s the first critical question of the debate.
I noticed that too - even the Klob got a q before him
By the way, if you appreciate this forum and are not already a subscriber to this newsletter, we'd love for you to join our community: reclaiminghope.substack.com/subscribe
I am curious to see if that final sequence, which I would view as very bad for Biden, will actually affect his support among black voters.
And what a helluva moment for Booker
There are sooo many issues they won't have time to get to in 2 hours, why are they spending so much time talking about Trump?
MSNBC?
Well...to be honest, not sure if its the questions asked or just the candidates pivoting to Trump...I'd have to look back more closely. But it seems we are back to the policy!
This would be a great place for Yang to jump in, re: point 6, as he's often derided the wealth tax. Is it just too early to be doing so?
no he absolutely needs to jump in
Equally excited for tonight. I'm curious, Michael, if you think Booker will pick up some of the attacks on Buttigieg that Castro will miss? There's a lot of chatter about the similarities in Booker and Buttigieg's background and how Booker is not getting the same attention for some of the same accolades (Rhodes Scholarship the most discussed that I've seen). Normally I wouldn't take Booker as the type to do such, but his tweet of an Onion article suggested maybe a more adversarial position, imo.
I do think Booker will pick up some of those attacks, but his profile and demeanor is different than Castro and likely won’t have the same kind of effect. Which is not to say he can’t take some wind out of Pete’s sails...we’ll see how it plays!